Recurrent drought and subsequent famine risk have become a devastating and unsustainable cycle in Somalia. Approximately USD 4.5 billion has been spent on emergency responses to save lives in the years since the 2011 famine. 6.2 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance due to drought and over 900,000 people have been newly displaced, in addition to 1.2 million already in a state of protracted displacement. Due to scaled up humanitarian response in partnership with the Federal Government, local authorities and partners, famine has so far been averted in 2017, but below average rain fall for a third consecutive season, and indications of a fourth consecutive below average season, mean that a risk of famine remains in many areas in late 2017 and in 2018.
While continued and ongoing humanitarian response is vital to protect the most vulnerable and avert famine, in the long-term it is sustainable investment into resilience and durable solutions, alongside humanitarian relief, which can lift Somalia out of poverty, climate-induced crises and insecurity. Somalia has also made huge progress in building stronger and more effective institutions, led by stronger Federal and Member State governments, which, with continued international support, can break the cycle of recurrent crisis, and these significant yet fragile gains should be protected. Somalia can address the drivers of fragility and insecurity if it acts now.
Drought Impact and Needs Assessment
It is within this context that the Federal Government of Somalia and Federal Member States, have carried out a Drought Impact and Needs Assessment (DINA), with the support of the EU, the UN and the World Bank. The assessment has analysed the impact of the ongoing drought and famine risk on the lives and livelihoods of the Somali people.
DINA was a multi-partner, multi sector approach led by the Federal Government and with the active engagement of the Federal Member States. More than 180 sector experts from the Government, the UN, EU and World Bank have carried out data collection across 18 sectors and have incorporated existing data from the Humanitarian Needs Overview process. Sectors analyzed include agriculture, water supply and sanitation, health and nutrition, food security, livelihoods, conflict, displacement, education and social protection.
What are the findings of the DINA?
The expert teams have identified impacts, needs and suggested practical solutions across multiple sectors. There has been damages amounting to USD 1.02 billion, and losses estimated at USD 2.23 billion, with the total effect of the drought in Somalia is expected to exceed USD 3.25 billion. Needs are estimated at 1.77 billion over 4-5 years, with Agriculture (irrigated and rain-fed crops), Urban Development, and Municipal Services for IDPs being the sectors with the highest needs.
Recovery and Resilience Framework
The findings of the assessment will inform the development of a Recovery and Resilience Framework (RRF), situated within the Government’s National Development Plan (NDP), that will recommend long-term recovery and resilience solutions that address root causes of drought and famine, to be delivered in parallel and in complementarity with humanitarian relief. The DINA and RRF will also help to ensure that available resources are being used effectively to address needs on both short- and long-term scale.
The RRF will also serve as an operational framework to prioritize and provide finance recommendations for the recovery interventions highlighted during the DINA process, situated within Somalia’s National Development Plan (NDP), while developing government capacity to manage a recovery programme. The framework will support the Somali Government to seek out public and private, domestic and international investments, coordinate outreach to traditional and non-traditional donors, and identify innovative financing tools.
The DINA has integrated the data from the Humanitarian Needs Outcome (HNO), while the RRF will be aligned with the 2018 Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP), to ensure that the needs of the most vulnerable are met, livelihoods are strengthened and resilience to disasters is built.
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